A War Path

[pakalert]

A War Path



The entire CIA backed coup against Musharraf was for this very purpose. He had always resisted this U.S. desire despite his dangerously close and lopsided relationship with U.S. Zardari has been made President for a purpose. Now the U.S. is not going to back down from their ultimate desire to destabilize Pakistani State and to create a justification to overrun Pakistani nukes. From allies to a threat, U.S. and its President have already downgraded Pakistan’s rating. Pakistan is now the next theatre of operations for U.S. forces after Iraq and Afghanistan. The meetings have begun at the highest levels to counter this “threat” from Pakistan army! Things are moving fast here and their pace is breathtaking. While the military commanders were fairly blunt and open in their rejection of US threats of cross border incursions, the political leadership was caught with red faces and even responded with deafening silence. The PM reluctantly gave a weak statement of support to the stance of the army but the CIA appointed President decided to stay silent, in fact was fuming with anger and decided to go to U.K. and U.S., canceling his visit to China!


By ZAID HAMID

Wednesday, 17 September 2008.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—Pakistan is now on a war path with U.S., at least the battle lines are being drawn. We shall start with U.S. missile attacks and ground incursions inside Pakistan. Last week we had done the following analysis on the developing situation which has the potential of getting out of hand for both U.S. and Pakistan.


We had written:



“While the army was busy in fighting the insurgencies on various fronts, it is now confronted with a new threat and this time it is from United States. Taking advantage of the chaos in Islamabad, U.S. finds it most appropriate time to take the matters into its own hands. The government would only protest as an eye wash and the army would be under tremendous pressure to hold its horses. It is interesting to note that U.S. is only targeting those regions where pro-Pakistan militants live. Those who are waging a war against the State of Pakistan like Baitullah Mehsud, are not touched by the U.S. despite repeated intelligence and information passed on to the U.S. military. U.S. is playing with fire here by pushing the army in a tight corner and testing the government’s will against local sentiments. In unprecedented moves, U.S. ground forces have now started to enter and attack local villagers inside Pakistan. So far they have only killed women and children. It is obvious that in the coming days, more such raids will be carried out by the U.S. The political government will have to do something just to maintain its image of authority or dignity. But in reality, it remains spineless and even collaborative in these acts. For the army, this is additional pressure when it is already fighting multiple low and medium intensity wars within its own borders. For the army, it would be difficult to stay out of political decision making if U.S. continues to carry out raids which in turn cast serious doubts on the role of army itself. The mood within the armed forces and within the nation is different from what is in Islamabad. We shall see in a few days.”



As expected for us but highly unexpected for U.S. as well as for PPP government, Pakistan’s military chief lashed out at U.S. for their incursions. First clear signs that battle lines are now being drawn between GHQ and Washington. Not just that the army Chief gave some stern warnings, he even flexed his muscles. This was totally stunning development and even caught the U.S. by surprise.



But U.S. has made its point clear. It is going to continue to make raids into Pakistan. The entire CIA backed coup against Musharraf was for this very purpose. He had always resisted this U.S. desire despite his dangerously close and lopsided relationship with U.S. Zardari has been made President for a purpose. Now the U.S. is not going to back down from their ultimate desire to destabilize Pakistani State and to create a justification to overrun Pakistani nukes. From allies to a threat, U.S. and its President have already downgraded Pakistan’s rating. Pakistan is now the next theatre of operations for U.S. forces after Iraq and Afghanistan. The meetings have begun at the highest levels to counter this “threat” from Pakistan army! Things are moving fast here and their pace is breathtaking!



While the military commanders were fairly blunt and open in their rejection of US threats of cross border incursions, the political leadership was caught with red faces and even responded with deafening silence. The PM reluctantly gave a weak statement of support to the stance of the army but the CIA appointed President decided to stay silent, in fact was fuming with anger and decided to go to U.K. and U.S., canceling his visit to China!



To add further punch to the message for the U.S. and NATO forces, Pakistan briefly stopped the fuel supplies for NATO operations in Afghanistan. The message was heard loud and clear immediately. While NATO heard, U.S. again pretended to feign ignorance.



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Nato not to take part in US raids inside Pakistan
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BRUSSELS: Nato will not take part in a proposed US strategy of conducting raids into Pakistan from Afghanistan against Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, a spokesman said on Thursday. “The Nato policy, that is our mandate, ends at the border,” James Appathurai told a regular news briefing.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20080912

But the international game is on big time to increase pressure on Pakistan to use more indiscriminate, ruthless and brutal force against local tribals. International pressure is now frustrating Pakistani Foreign Office, especially when Mr. Karzai also decides to chip in his lot.



U.S. raids so far have killed dozens of women and children and have created such a charged environment in the country that even the PPP government officials are forced to show some concern. Media is already taking the line which does not suit U.S. at all. Opposition leaders have fully backed the army and have demanded a firm stance against U.S. Now it is a national cause and for the first time army seems to have gained serious sympathy and support even from its arch critics.



But on the larger axis, the pressure on Pakistan is not just on the issue of terrorism but also on the explosive issue of nuclear proliferation. After imposing this President and Prime Minister on us, the case is now being re-opened by the U.S. to increase pressure on Pakistan and the objective of this prong is to create a case to eliminate Pakistan’s nuke program – the ultimate prize for the U.S. and Israel / India axis. Pakistan was not amused.



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Network used net to diffuse knowhow: IAEA
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VIENNA, Sept 12: The network supplying Iran, North Korea and Libya with “illicit nuclear technology” had substantial and sensitive information on how to make atomic arms, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Friday. The agency, in a restricted report made available to media, also alleged much of the A. Q. Khan network’s material was passed on to customers in electronic form — giving a potentially unlimited number of clients access, whether they were governments or individuals.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20080913


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Old stuff, says FO
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ISLAMABAD, Sept 12: The Foreign Office rejected on Friday a UN nuclear watchdog report about contacts between Libya and Dr A.Q. Khan as ‘old stuff’.

Foreign Office Spokesman Muhammad Sadiq said the report essentially summarised the results of IAEA’s verification activities in Libya and provided an overview of Libya’s past nuclear programme.

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20080913



But Pakistan’s old friend China comes to Pakistan’s rescue as far as nuke discrimination is concerned. It is incredible to note that PPP government has withdrawn Pakistani ambassador from Beijing and right now there is no Pakistani ambassador in China for the last 4 months. This government in Islamabad is making sure that permanent and total damage is done to Pakistan’s relations with China.



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‘China supported Pakistan at NSG’
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NEW DELHI, Sept 8: Foreign ministers of India and China met on Monday amid accusations by India’s main security official that Beijing tried to torpedo last week’s decision by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group to lift a 34-year old ban on India for civil nuclear commerce. Meanwhile, Indian newspapers highlighted comments by the Chinese delegation in Vienna, which they said insinuated that Beijing wants a similar NSG waiver to be given to Pakistan too.
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20080909



********



Kashmir:



We shall continue to monitor the Kashmiri intafada which is creating a major security nightmare for the Indian federation. Indians are now in a major crisis in Kashmir. The valley uprising continue to stun Indians and they have a major security crisis at hand almost getting out of hand now.



Last week, we had given the following analysis on the explosive situation:



“This is a security, political and diplomatic nightmare for India and just when Indians had thought that they have fully and comprehensibly contained Kashmir resistance and encircled Pakistan from Afghan side as well by supporting multiple insurgencies in Pakistan, the valley seems slipping from their hand. The frictions inside the valley almost always result in clashes along the Line of Control between Pakistani and Indian forces. Both countries know that situation is serious and any spark can lead to a limited border war. With serious internal pressures from the local population, Indians are obviously reluctant to start a border war and for the first time have gone on serious defensive posture”.



But there is something sinister in the air which only Mr. Zardari seems to know as far as what Pakistan’s future position on Kashmir is going to be. So far, Pakistan has not supported the uprising in the valley except some verbal expressions of concern.



Indians are in a state of panic at the moment. The Kashmir resistance has erupted into a popular revolt against the third largest standing army in the world. But there is no doubt that even without Pakistan’s help, the Kashmir uprising has shaken the Indian federation to the core and it shows the intrinsic vulnerabilities of the Indian State. The violent reaction of Kashmir crackdowns is now taking their toll on Indian federation elsewhere with devastating affects.



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Serial blasts numb Delhi shoppers: 22 killed, over 100 injured in attacks
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NEW DELHI, Sept 13: At least five bombs exploded in quick succession in crowded markets and streets in the heart of New Delhi on Saturday, killing at least 22 people and injuring scores more, police said. The Indian Mujahideen militant group, which has claimed several major attacks in recent months, sent an email to television stations, saying it was responsible for the blasts.

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20080914





For Pakistan’s external security, it is now a war on multiple fronts. With these unprecedented and critical times at hand, newly elected President of Pakistan decides to embark on a secretive visit to Dubai and London and then to U.S. for taking direct orders for next agenda especially now when the army chief has unexpectedly surprised the Americans and is now classified as “hostile.” As we write, Mr. Zardari is heading westwards. He has cancelled his visit to China.





A quick review:



Right now there are four axes where war is being fought against insurgents.



1. Swat region.
2. Bajaur.
3. Parachinar.
4. Baluchistan.



First three theatres involve TTP and Baitullah mehsud’s men. 4th is Marxist, secular insurgency by BLA.



Swat Region:



It is a ruthless war in Swat. The situation is unchanged for the last few weeks. It is now a medium intensity conflict with serious casualties from both sides. Military operation is underway now with occasional high intensity clashes between militants and forces. Curfew is imposed in most of Swat region and traveling to that area is highly dangerous these days. Military is gaining an upper hand and the terrorists have taken losses but their capacity to do damage against unarmed civilians remain threatening.



Bajour, South Waziristan and tribal region:



For the security forces, Bajour is a success story so far with severe losses to the militants. With local population on the move for safer locations, the military has a free hand to use lethal force including fighter jets. Local tribals have also risen against the militants and now the loyalists of Baitullah Mehsud are pressed between the army and the local tribes. It is now clearly acknowledge in the military circles that TTP, the terrorist outfit of Baitullah, is a CIA backed and RAW funded group and now military is not giving them any quarter. It is fierce and ruthless fighting and now when US and Indian assets have been exposed.



Parachinar Region:



The war between tribes continues in the region and so far security forces have not intervened. But the sectarian clashes have remained a local affair and the fight has not spread to other regions of the tribal areas or to the rest of the country though Afghan government is funding and supporting both sides of the conflict. This is the irony.



Local Taliban Terrorism in the country:



Considering the intensity of operations in the tribal areas and the casualties suffered by the militants, number of retaliatory suicide attacks has reduced considerably though the threats still remain. But the ruling ANP in NWFP is now a direct target and is taking serious losses for their support to US against local militants.



Baluchistan Insurgency by BLA and their foreign sponsors:



Taking advantage of the PPP government and a sub-nationalist government in Baluchistan, all terrorists are being released and the sub-nationalists feel that their time has come to intensify the struggle for separation of Baluchistan from Pakistan. In reality, the PPP government itself is fighting for its survival and still does not have the capacity to offer any serious support to the sub-nationalist cause in Baluchistan though its policies would deteriorate security issues in the province.



To sum up the chaos and covert ops on ground, we would like to quote Usman Khalid, who writes in a recent article about the real game plan being unfolded on ground rapidly.



Gen. Kayani Must Not Blink, ‘Pakistan Taliban’ Are CIA

By Usman Khalid



Clearly, the U.S. is stung by Pakistan discovering who is the real enemy. Pakistan has decided to liquidate the TTP and is succeeding with popular support. The U.S. should have been satisfied that the Pakistan Army is pursuing the TTP, but it is not. Clearly, the TTP is the excuse not the target. The American objective is to destabilize Pakistan. I refer to the article titled ‘The Destabilization of Pakistan’ by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research, Canada, in which it was revealed, before Feb. 18 elections, that U.S. sees an opportunity in the elections to advance its agenda and is supporting the terrorists inside Pakistan towards that end. He wrote:



“Washington will push for a compliant political leadership, with no commitment to the national interest, a leadership which will serve US imperial interests, while concurrently contributing under the disguise of "decentralization", to the weakening of the central government and the fracture of Pakistan's fragile federal structure.”…. "U.S. Special Forces are expected to vastly expand their presence. The official justification and pretext… to extend the "war on terrorism". Concurrently, to justify its counter-terrorism program, Washington is also beefing up its covert support to the "terrorists."



It has become apparent that the insurgency in the FATA and elsewhere in NWFP is aided and abetted by the US. It wants to weaken the control of the federal government over the provinces and regions of Pakistan and it does not care whether it is achieved by Islamists or by ethnic nationalists. It supports the BLA as well as Baitullah Mehsud. It maintains its contacts with the MQM, the ANP, Baloch Nationalists as well as the JUI. It came to court the PPP as it concluded it was not overly concerned with ‘national interests’. The economic conditions have been deteriorating so fast that the economy is being described as close to ‘melt-down’. The only remaining condition yet to be met for ‘destabilization’ to become unstoppable is the ‘demonization’ of the Pakistan Army.”



This column is extracted from a situation report released by BRASSTACKS, a security and defense analysis think tank based in Islamabad. Mr. Zaid Hamid is its Founding Consultant. He can be reached at info@brasstacks.biz You can also visit www.brasstacks.pk

[Truth]

Zahid Hamid ,Ahmed Qureeshi jese Gaddar loog inko to pakistan me jaga bhi nahi dena chahiye Amrican Agent hain ye loog $ kay leye kam kartay hain

[sara jaffri]

Excellent. Another brilliant analysis by Brasstacks team. Well done Zaid H. You are right, Kashmir is a boiling and requires Pakistan's involvement. Even India's Army - the 4th largest is humbled by these protestors. Bravo !!! The Pakistani Army is the strongest and the bravest in the whole world - but this time I want to see some action from the Army. Instead of sending "jehadists" who form the front core of the attack, the Paksitani Army should not hide behind them, but should now come in front and fight. It will thrash the weak Hindu Indian forces in no time. And America is facing imminent defeat in Afghanistan and sorely needs Pakistan as an ally - these arguments of Brasstacks are of highest quality and we thank him for his guidance. I say, bring on the best Pakistan army has to offer and take Kashmir, shoot the Americans, kill the infidel Indian army. All the best !!

[SHQ]

Another excellent analysis by the Brasstacks team. It is clear that we are beseiged by dangers but it is encouraging to see that the honored armed forces and the multitude of our population are strong in their resolve in front of this situation. Personally, I would recommend to our forces that if the present goverment continues to damage Pakistan's interests (and there is no evidence to suggest that it will stop) then the Army should move in to impose Martial Law with standing orders of shoot-to-kill. Any unrest created by the likes of PPP, MQM, BLA etc. in such an event should be dealt-with ruthlessly. The security situation should be taken care of and stablized. It has become clear that anti-state elements in the government are responsible for most of the problems which are artificially contrived. The clock is ticking and once again the country is looking towards its soldiers for protection.